Iran’s Nightmare Scenario is the headline of a story by Eli Lake in the New York Sun this morning. It outlines some possible plans for Iranian attacks in response to an Israeli move against Iran. Included among them are actions against Saudi oil infrastructure (driving up the price of oil) and terrorist attacks in Israel and the U.S. Mohamed ElBaradei, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, is quoted as saying that an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities would turn the Middle East into a “ball of fire.”
This analysis comes as speculation continues that Israel will attack Iran before Bush leaves office.
This is a thorny situation. There is an obvious and very real danger in letting Iran develop a nuclear weapon. The bottom line is that it can’t be allowed to happen. On the other hand, if Israel attacks Iran, Iraq, and all of the progress we’ve made there, will be destroyed. Iran has substantial influence in the country and the capability to bring about chaos, if they so choose.
I hope the Bushies are truly thinking about both America’s best short- and long-term interests as they deal with Israel on this. We are already at war. Are we ready to start all over again in Iraq? Are we ready for a massive conflagration that may spread far beyond the Middle East? Is it really time to bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran?
Trying to squeeze this neocon wet dream in before Bush leaves office leads me to believe that the decision along these lines is being made by political considerations and not strategic necessity.