New York City Real Estate to Fall Another 35%

Friday, May 15, 2009

At minimum, according the Deutsche Bank (courtesy of Clusterstock). Goldman Sachs has them falling another 58%.

And this with prices already down 20-25% (though DB has them down only 8% as of Q4 ’08).

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Apocalypse NYC

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Sorry, I can’t help a sensationalistic headline…

At any rate, read this, courtesy of Reuters (h/t Clusterstock):

New York City’s net personal income tax revenues plunged 51 percent in the first 24 days of April, compared with the same period a year ago, the city comptroller’s office said on Monday.

Yes, 51%.

Though the city’s real estate market fended off much of the pain seen around the nation until late last year, the depth of its current fall was underscored by the state’s mass transit agency.

“We’re seeing it declining even faster and deeper than in the post-1987 deflating of the real estate bubble,” said Gary Dellaverson, chief financial officer for the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, at a finance committee meeeting.

Uh huh.

Democratic Governor David Paterson, speaking to reporters, estimated the state’s deficit next year at $2.7 billion.

The state will update its financial plan later this week, he said. New York City also should issue new estimates soon.

While there was a “significant” drop in state corporate tax revenues in March, followed by a decline in personal income tax collections in April, Paterson added that there were signs the economy might stabilize sooner than anticipated.

Well, this is true if New York State is going to receive a huge check from the Feds. If not, Paterson is smoking crack. Throughout this meltdown local, state, and the Federal government have drastically underestimated their budgetary shortfalls. New York State’s deficit next year will be an order of magnitude higher than $2.7 billion.

And if you think this is bad, wait until you see what happens on a federal level.


Don’t Buy Real Estate Yet

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

P.F. – Don’t read this post.

This piece, by David Leonhardt, is a must read for renters (or anyone considering buying):

Still, when I wrote about that decision last spring, I argued that anyone who didn’t have to probably should not buy yet. Prices still had a way to fall.

They don’t have as far to fall today, but the great real estate crash is not over, either. So if you are part of the 30 percent of American households who rent and you’re trying to decide when to buy, relax.

The market is still coming your way.

Particularly in New York. Revealing charts accompany the article demonstrating that prices relative to income are still historically very high. Wait for reversion to mean.


Older Men, Reproduction, and Resentment

Sunday, April 5, 2009

It’s a beautiful day in New York so I’m not going to write a long (or, many will argue, well thought-out) post for this issue, but I will just say I am consistently amazed at the resentment among privileged, educated women at men generally, and, I’m guessing, at their husbands specifically.

Reading the New York Times Magazine and a piece within by Lisa Belkin, essentially calling for men to be riven by the same age and time pressure as women when in comes to reproduction. She cites several studies that promote the idea that older men have children with more problems – lower IQs, autism, etc. Assuming that the studies rigorously controlled for other factors (which is always a legitimate concern in studies of this kind) like environment and mothers’ age, correlation doesn’t imply causation.

It seems more likely to me that older dads are simply too tired to supply the extra stimulation to boost their childrens’ IQs by two or three points.

In any case, Belkin goes off on an embittered riff about men having “sell by” dates and hoping that women will now begin to judge them in the same way women are judged.

Good luck, sister.

And while you’re at it, quit complaining. The choices of the modern woman are what women have been fighting for for decades, right? Furthermore, she isn’t really at war with men or the culture, she’s at war with biology, but doesn’t seem to realize it.

Reproduction is the purpose of life. If you don’t want to have kids, don’t have them. But if you do, quit complaining. The world has had enough of these latter-day feminists whining about the burdens of motherhood. She writes of the stereotype of “women eager to settle down and men as reluctant” as though their were no truth in it; as though women are not the primary drivers of our reproductive dyad. It’s just silly.

Lisa, women – you want babies and are anatomically constructed to grow and nurture them. Get used to it already. In fact, revel in it. It’s the point of your existence – not, and this is true of men as well, whatever pathetic career you pursue until you die and everyone forgets you ever existed.

Even if it turns out to be true that sperm loses some potency as men age, it does not change the sexual dynamic. Men can reproduce well beyond the age when women can. Fecundity is sexually attractive. Ipso facto, men are attractive to the opposite sex for longer than women are. That’s why women go for the “silver-haired sex symbols,” and why old ladies can’t get a date.

What can you do? Life sucks.

One can only imagine what its like to live with a woman like this. Carefully charting up chores and duties to make sure they’re split 50/50 and resenting it the whole way; seething about breastfeeding and having the primary role as the caregiver because she is “mommy.”

Eeesh. I pity her poor husband.


Manhattan Co-op Prices Down 22% in Q1

Thursday, April 2, 2009

From Bloomberg:

Manhattan co-op prices dropped the most since 1995 and transactions for all apartments plummeted 48 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier as the recession and Wall Street unemployment cut demand.

The median price for co-operative apartments fell 22 percent to $587,500, according to a report today by New York appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. and broker Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate.


NYC Real Estate Prices to Fall Another 50%

Tuesday, March 31, 2009

From Zero Hedge, an analysis by Deutsche Bank:

The top 5 MSAs (Metropolitan Statistical Areas) where the pain will be most acute? (no real surprise there):

1. New York-White Plains-Wayne
2. West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach
3. Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall
4. Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach
5. Long Island Nassau-Suffolk


Dragging Ass Across Winter’s Finish Line

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

I don’t know how Canadians do it.

Booze? Medication?

We need a little springtime. Right this very minute.