New York City Real Estate to Fall Another 35%

Friday, May 15, 2009

At minimum, according the Deutsche Bank (courtesy of Clusterstock). Goldman Sachs has them falling another 58%.

And this with prices already down 20-25% (though DB has them down only 8% as of Q4 ’08).

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Home Prices Continue to Fall

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

From CNBC:

Nationwide, the median sales price was $169,900, down 13.8 percent from a year ago.

The peak for the nationwide median price was $230,100, in July 2006, according the the National Association of Realtors.


Manhattan Real Estate in the Tank

Thursday, May 7, 2009

From Bloomberg:

There are 11,150 sales listings in Manhattan as of this week, according to Streeteasy, which counts only listings that are exclusive to a brokerage and that have verified addresses. The number is higher than any that Miller Samuel has counted since it began tracking inventory in 1999.

Price reductions, empty buildings…and still they’re not anywhere near a bottom. You want to know what a property in NYC is worth? Look at the value of the apartment in 1995 and then tack on 3-5% inflation per year.


Prime Mortgage Delinquencies Rising

Thursday, April 23, 2009

This is what happens when people start losing their jobs. [Fannie and Freddie via Calculated Risk]

The tables show that the number of prime 60 days+ delinquent rose to 743,686 in January, from 497,131 in December. This is an increase from 1.93% in December to 2.89% in January.


Don’t Buy Real Estate Yet

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

P.F. – Don’t read this post.

This piece, by David Leonhardt, is a must read for renters (or anyone considering buying):

Still, when I wrote about that decision last spring, I argued that anyone who didn’t have to probably should not buy yet. Prices still had a way to fall.

They don’t have as far to fall today, but the great real estate crash is not over, either. So if you are part of the 30 percent of American households who rent and you’re trying to decide when to buy, relax.

The market is still coming your way.

Particularly in New York. Revealing charts accompany the article demonstrating that prices relative to income are still historically very high. Wait for reversion to mean.


Freddie Mac CFO Commits Suicide

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

His name was David Kellermann. Obviously, terrible.

And then, it makes you wonder… Just how much trouble are we in?

Better not to jump to conclusions.


Stress Test Leak?

Monday, April 20, 2009

This has caused a stir. Treasury claims not to have the results yet, so how can this dude have them? Treasury appears, however, to be lying. Nevertheless, this guy is apparently a major crank and the post is almost certainly false.

From a blog called Turner Radio Network:

The Turner Radio Network has obtained the stress test results. They are very bad. The most salient points from the stress tests appear below.

1) Of the top nineteen (19) banks in the nation, sixteen (16) are already technically insolvent.

2) Of the 16 banks that are already technically insolvent, not even one can withstand any disruption of cash flow at all or any further deterioration in non-paying loans.

3) If any two of the 16 insolvent banks go under, they will totally wipe out all remaining FDIC insurance funding.

4) Of the top 19 banks in the nation, the top five (5) largest banks are under capitalized so dangerously, there is serious doubt about their ability to continue as ongoing businesses.

5) Five large U.S. banks have credit exposure related to their derivatives trading that exceeds their capital, with four in particular – JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, HSBC Bank America and Citibank – taking especially large risks.

6) Bank of America`s total credit exposure to derivatives was 179 percent of its risk-based capital; Citibank`s was 278 percent; JPMorgan Chase`s, 382 percent; and HSBC America`s, 550 percent. It gets even worse: Goldman Sachs began reporting as a commercial bank, revealing an alarming total credit exposure of 1,056 percent, or more than ten times its capital!

7) Not only are there serious questions about whether or not JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs,Citibank, Wells Fargo, Sun Trust Bank, HSBC Bank USA, can continue in business, more than 1,800 regional and smaller institutions are at risk of failure despite government bailouts!

The debt crisis is much greater than the government has reported. The FDIC`s “Problem List” of troubled banks includes 252 institutions with assets of $159 billion. 1,816 banks and thrifts are at risk of failure, with total assets of $4.67 trillion, compared to 1,568 institutions, with $2.32 trillion in total assets in prior quarter.

Put bluntly, the entire US Banking System is in complete and total collapse.

It’s entirely plausible, isn’t it? American ponzi, baby!