New York City Real Estate to Fall Another 35%

At minimum, according the Deutsche Bank (courtesy of Clusterstock). Goldman Sachs has them falling another 58%.

And this with prices already down 20-25% (though DB has them down only 8% as of Q4 ’08).

Manhattan Real Estate in the Tank

From Bloomberg:

There are 11,150 sales listings in Manhattan as of this week, according to Streeteasy, which counts only listings that are exclusive to a brokerage and that have verified addresses. The number is higher than any that Miller Samuel has counted since it began tracking inventory in 1999.

Price reductions, empty buildings…and still they’re not anywhere near a bottom. You want to know what a property in NYC is worth? Look at the value of the apartment in 1995 and then tack on 3-5% inflation per year.

Don’t Buy Real Estate Yet

P.F. – Don’t read this post.

This piece, by David Leonhardt, is a must read for renters (or anyone considering buying):

Still, when I wrote about that decision last spring, I argued that anyone who didn’t have to probably should not buy yet. Prices still had a way to fall.

They don’t have as far to fall today, but the great real estate crash is not over, either. So if you are part of the 30 percent of American households who rent and you’re trying to decide when to buy, relax.

The market is still coming your way.

Particularly in New York. Revealing charts accompany the article demonstrating that prices relative to income are still historically very high. Wait for reversion to mean.

Manhattan Real Estate: It’s Over

The stories are now coming in fast and furious. The years of excess inventory. The tens-of-thousands of unsold condos. Prices plummeting. Manhattan (and Brooklyn) heading due south (no Miami pun intended).

It didn’t take a genius to figure this out, just look at any of the new condo developments at night. They’re empty.

Plus, Nouriel Roubini was talking about this years ago, long before the real estate/Wall Street bubble popped.

At any rate, here are some of the stories:

Dumbo Goes Down
Harlem, Too

An Insider on Inventory Piling Up:

1. inventory now at 11,000 listed homes, condos and coops in manhattan which is almost 3x normal
2. inventory actually grew 1200 units over the last 30-days (the attached stats are a couple of weeks old and the listing velocity INCREASED the last 2 weeks)

Condo 50% Off Auctions Coming Soon
Buyers Forfeiting Six Figure Deposits
Buyers Organizing Because They Paid Too Much (for Shoddy Buildings)

The talk is of a return to prices as they were in the mid-90s; $500/sq. ft. or less in prime Manhattan.

Manhattan Apartment Prices Plummeting

Again, few things give me more pleasure than to imagine the suffering of New York City real estate agents.

These people are the lowest form of professional life in the city, and that’s saying something in a town of Dick Fulds and Bernie Madoffs.

At any rate, CNBC reports:

[Super broker Dottie] Herman sees a possible price decline of 20 percent to 25 percent afflicting the entire Manhattan market in the first quarter.

While Clusterstock cites the Wall Street Journal:

But the average prices of units that are under contract but haven’t yet closed declined 20% since August 2008, a rapid reversal, according to Miller Samuel Real Estate Appraisers, which co-wrote one report with Prudential Douglas Elliman, one of the city’s largest residential real-estate firms. Those sales should close during the first quarter of 2009. A separate report by the Corcoran Group found that transactions in the fourth quarter fell by as much as 53%.

Woo hoo! To every real estate agent who told me that New York City is different – limited supply, new immigration, Wall Street bonuses, prices never go down – I say, rot in hell, dicksnot. You were either stupid or a liar.

If you suffer in this downturn, you deserve it.

Manhattan Real Estate Prices Down 20%

From Real Deal:

As anecdotal evidence about fall sales seeps out, well before brokerage reports about fourth-quarter transactions, evidence is mounting that not only have Manhattan housing prices slipped, they have done so by around 20 percent, which is a much more precipitous plunge than expected.

At this festive time of year, few things give me more pleasure than imagining the suffering of New York City real estate agents.

Continued significant price deterioration is guaranteed, as prices come into line with historical rent vs. own / debt-to-income ratios.

Manhattan Apartment Prices Fall

The New York Sun reports that Manhattan apartment prices are finally beginning to fall. People are selling at a loss. You’d never know this talking to real estate agents, but here it is. From the story:

Because of ongoing layoffs on Wall Street and an expected drop in bonuses, though, more apartments will be sold at a loss.

“This is just the beginning,” Mr. Gross said.